São Paulo FC — 2026 season by coaching era

Série A performance under Crespo, Machado and Dorival — benchmarked against all 20 clubs. Data: FotMob + Sofascore (consolidated).

Results vs. underlying performance (points vs. expected points)

xPTS = points a team "deserved" from its chances (Poisson model on match xG). Gap between the bars = luck / finishing.

Style profile by era (league percentile, 100 = best)

Expected goals for vs. against (per game)

Where São Paulo ranked among the 20 clubs (1 = best)

Metric	Crespo	Machado	Dorival

Colour: green = top of league, red = bottom. Direction-aware (e.g. fewer fouls / less xG conceded = better).

Read of the three eras

Crespo (4 matches) - the league's most aggressive ball-winning side (#1 recoveries & tackles), high chance quality from few shots, foul-heavy. Won at 2.50 pts/game but "deserved" only 1.50 - results flattered by defensive luck. Small sample.

Machado (11 matches) - the honest baseline: 1.27 actual vs 1.28 expected points. More possession, far less pressing intensity - a controlled but average mid-table team.

Dorival (4 matches) - most dominant on the ball (58.8% possession, most shots) yet only 0.25 pts/game while "deserving" 1.34. A pronounced finishing/luck problem sitting on top of the best underlying control of the three. Small sample - the process says better days are coming.

Série A only (rounds 1–19). Crespo & Dorival cover 4 league matches each — treat those as directional. Independent analysis · public data (FotMob / Sofascore) · snapshot as of round 19, 2026.